Analyst: Apple’s global market share could drop below 10% in Q3 without a new iPhone

With the unlikely iPhone 5S announcement at the WWDC 2013, things might get badly to Apple according to analysts. Of course Apple will definitely be announcing a new iPhone by Q3, but the timing of the actual release could mean that its global market share will take a substantial hit. There is a solid chance that we will see the announcement for the iPhone 5S in September, but it may not be released until October. And, according to Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein, that could lead to Apple’s global market share dropping below 10% in Q3.

The basic premise behind Toni’s prediction is sound: while Apple’s smartphone sales did grow almost 7% year-on-year, the overall smartphone market grew 36%, so Apple’s global market share has dropped year-on-year from 23% to 17%. Given the speed at which the smartphone market is growing, combined with Apple’s usual sales lull that comes before a new hardware launch, Apple’s market share will shrink.

The situation won’t get any better by June, he figures. Based on Apple’s fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, he estimates Apple will sell about 25 million iPhones in the current quarter (down 4% year over year). If the overall market grows 30%, Apple’s share will fall to 12.3%. If it grows 36%, Apple’s share falls to 11.7%.

Mr. Sacconaghi drops the hammer by saying, “Perhaps most startlingly if Apple does not introduce a new iPhone or lower-priced phone in CQ3 [Apple’s fiscal Q4], it is quite possible that iPhone’s smartphone market share could drop into the single digits.” There is a solid chance of that.

But, it always needs to be mentioned that market share doesn’t necessarily correlate to profits. As we’ve seen for a couple years now, even with a minority market share worldwide, Apple has consistently been on top or right up there with Samsung as far as profits. And, we also know that even though Apple’s sales drop just before a new product launch, its profit margins grow because of supply chain improvements and reduced hardware costs. So, even if Apple’s global market share does drop below 10%, we still have to wait and see what kind of trouble that causes for Apple’s business.

 

Source , Via

IDC reports that 27.8m tablets shipped in Q3 2012, Android gains momentum at Apple’s expense

There are a total of 27.8 million tablets shipped worldwide in Q3 of 2012 according to a preliminary report from IDC. Compared to the same quarter last year, this is nearly 50% jump in sales and just 6.7% over the previous quarter.

Android tablet have started gaining more considerable market share, as Samsung has shipped 5.1 million tablets in the third quarter, which is twice as much as they managed in the previous quarter, and an increase of 325.0% from 3Q11, when it shipped 1.2 million tablets. This puts the company in second place with 18.4% market share.

Apple maintains its king of the hill position, shipping 50.4% of all tablets in Q3. That’s down from 65.5% for the previous quarter. The anticipation around the announcement of the company’s new iPad mini and iPad 4 are the reason for the slowdown in Apple’s tablet sales. Now that those are out, IDC expect the company to post strong Q4 results.

Vendor	3Q12 Shipments	3Q12 Market Share	3Q11 Shipments	3Q11 Market Share	3Q12/3Q11 Growth
1. Apple	14.0	50.4%	11.1	59.7%	26.1%
2. Samsung	5.1	18.4%	1.2	6.5%	325.0%
3. Amazon.com	2.5	9.0%	NA	NA	NA
4. Asus	2.4	8.6%	0.7	3.8%	242.9%
5. Lenovo	0.4	1.4%	0.2	1.1%	100.0%
Others	3.3	12.2%	5.4	28.9%	-38.9%
All Vendors	27.8	100%	18.6	100%	49.5%

Still, analysts also think that Android’s tablet upswing will continue as the Apple iPad mini might come off as too expensive at $329 for the regular 7-inch tablet consumer, which would be lured by the Amazon and ASUS’ tablets. Speaking of those two, Amazon, ASUS along with Lenovo round up the top 5 tablet manufacturers.